How this is estimated
Chapter 10 uses two twelve-month retention curves: with nothing behind the program, about of patients are still active at month twelve (a nationwide Danish registry study of 157,822 adults starting semaglutide for weight loss found 13% had stopped by 3 months, 27% by 6, 39% by 9 and 49% by 12; JAMA Network Open, 28 Aug 2026); with onboarding and maintenance in place, about , which is a target to measure against, not a study result.
Your retention = + ( − ) × your score ÷ 30.
Patients at risk = active patients × ( − your retention): the patients a well-run program keeps that yours may not.
Revenue at risk = patients at risk × monthly price × 6 to 12 months. The low end assumes drop-off spreads across the year, so each lost patient forfeits about six months. The high end counts a full year for each. Rounded to the nearest $100.
It treats your active patients as if they started together, and it leaves out aesthetic treatments a retained patient might add later, so it's deliberately conservative. Every figure here is an estimate from your own answers, not a measurement of your practice. Your real twelve-month number is the one to trust.